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Reserving Made Simple

Everything an insurer needs to estimate outstanding claims with confidence — from the very first triangle to a stochastic view of uncertainty — explained so a non-actuary can follow and a regulator can trust.

What's in the set

Three pieces that work together.

The manual

A concise, plain-language guide: why reserving exists, the triangle, the four methods, uncertainty, the AI layer and a regulatory-scrutiny section. Quick Start page for non-specialists.

The Excel demonstrator

Paid and incurred triangles with tail factors, four methods side by side, the paid-vs-incurred diagnostic, the case/IBNR split, a Mack uncertainty band and an AI reasonableness check — every formula visible.

The instructor key

Expected answers, the diagnostic readings to look for, a six-part marking rubric and a 90-minute lesson plan — plus an auto-grading tab that marks a student's answer automatically.

What you'll cover

The methods, in the order they make sense.

The triangleThe one idea behind everything — paid and incurred.
Chain LadderLetting the data speak, with development and tail factors.
Bornhuetter-FergusonThe workhorse: blending data with a prior.
Cape CodLetting the data set the loss ratio.
Paid vs incurredThe diagnostic that exposes weak case reserves.
Case & IBNR splitSeparating what's known from the actuary's estimate.
The Mack peekA stochastic view of how wrong you could be.
AI reasonablenessRules-based flags tuned for African books.

Pair it with Pricing for a full curriculum.

Reserving and Pricing Made Simple together form a coherent onboarding programme for underwriters and junior actuaries. Take both as a bundle.